{"id":2179,"date":"2021-11-04T12:44:13","date_gmt":"2021-11-04T12:44:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/?p=2179"},"modified":"2021-11-04T12:44:13","modified_gmt":"2021-11-04T12:44:13","slug":"wave-foreclosures-not-way","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wave-foreclosures-not-way\/","title":{"rendered":"Why a Wave of Foreclosures Is Not on the Way"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_2180\" style=\"width: 760px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2180\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2180\" src=\"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/20211104-KCM-Share.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/20211104-KCM-Share.jpeg 750w, https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/20211104-KCM-Share-300x164.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2180\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Why a Wave of Foreclosures Is Not on the Way<\/p><\/div>\n<p>With forbearance plans coming to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures similar to what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are a few reasons why that won\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>After the last housing crash, about\u00a0<a title=\"9.3 million households\" href=\"https:\/\/economics.cmail20.com\/t\/ViewEmail\/d\/6DD5AA0E9F6529292540EF23F30FEDED\/5323CD85A2087AFD22947492D9797BBC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">9.3 million households<\/a>\u00a0lost their homes to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.<\/p>\n<p>As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the fear was the pandemic would impact the housing industry in a similar way. Many projected up to\u00a0<a title=\"30% of all mortgage holders\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.firstam.com\/economics\/this-time-its-different-why-a-wave-of-foreclosures-is-unlikely\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">30% of all mortgage holders<\/a>\u00a0would enter the forbearance program. In reality, only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now\u00a0<a title=\"down to 2.2%\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mba.org\/2021-press-releases\/october\/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-221-percent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">down to 2.2%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance\u00a0<a title=\"stood at&amp;nbsp; 1,221,000\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blackknightinc.com\/blog-posts\/forbearances-flat-for-second-consecutive-week\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">stood at\u00a0 1,221,000<\/a>. That\u2019s far fewer than the 9.3 million households that lost their homes just over a decade ago.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>Most of the mortgages in forbearance have enough equity to sell their homes<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, of the 1.22 million homeowners currently in forbearance,\u00a0<a title=\"93% have at least 10% equity\" href=\"https:\/\/cdn.blackknightinc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/BKI_MM_Apr2021_Report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">93% have at least 10% equity<\/a>\u00a0in their homes. This 10% equity is important because it enables homeowners to sell their homes and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.<\/p>\n<p>The remaining 7% might not have the option to sell, but if the entire 7% of those 1.22 million homes went into foreclosure, that would total about 85,400 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the\u00a0<a title=\"annual foreclosure numbers\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/microeconomics\/hhdc.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">annual foreclosure numbers<\/a>\u00a0for the three years leading up to the pandemic:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2017: 314,220<\/li>\n<li>2018: 279,040<\/li>\n<li>2019: 277,520<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures that impacted the housing crash 15 years ago. It\u2019s actually less than one-third of any of the three years prior to the pandemic.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>The current market can absorb listings coming to the market<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>When foreclosures hit the market back in 2008, there was an oversupply of houses for sale. It\u2019s exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was over a nine-month supply of listings on the market. Today, that number is less than a\u00a0<a title=\"three-month supply\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/housing-statistics\/existing-home-sales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">three-month supply<\/a>. Here\u2019s a graph showing the difference between the two markets.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2181\" style=\"width: 1010px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2181\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2181\" src=\"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/kcm-infographic-1636029337.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"870\" srcset=\"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/kcm-infographic-1636029337.png 1000w, https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/kcm-infographic-1636029337-300x261.png 300w, https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/kcm-infographic-1636029337-768x668.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2181\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Months Inventory of Homes for Sale<\/p><\/div>\n<h3><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The data indicates why\u00a0<a title=\"Ivy Zelman\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tomferry.com\/our-podcast\/experience-91\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ivy Zelman<\/a>, founder of the major housing market analytical firm\u00a0<em>Zelman and Associates<\/em>, was on point when she stated:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em>\u201cThe likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is\u00a0<strong>about zero percent<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Contact us:<\/strong><br \/>\nPHP Houses<br \/>\n142 W Lakeview Ave<br \/>\nUnit 1030<br \/>\nLake Mary, FL 32746<br \/>\nPh:\u00a0<span id=\"gc-number-1\" class=\"gc-cs-link\" title=\"Call with Google Voice\">(407) 519-0719<\/span><br \/>\nFax:\u00a0<span id=\"gc-number-2\" class=\"gc-cs-link\" title=\"Call with Google Voice\">(407) 205-1951<\/span><br \/>\nemail:\u00a0info@phphouses.com<\/p>\n<p><strong>Let\u2019s Connect:<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WeBuyHousesCentralFlorida\/\">Facebook<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/walter-diloreto-25403710\/\">Linkedin<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WalterDiLoreto\">Twitter<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/wdiloreto\/\">Instagram<\/a><\/p>\n<h5><em>The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. The author does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. The author will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.<\/em><\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With forbearance plans coming to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures similar to what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are a few reasons why that won\u2019t happen. <a class=\"continue\" href=\"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wave-foreclosures-not-way\/\">Finish Reading<span> Why a Wave of Foreclosures Is Not on the Way<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[69],"tags":[15,10,18,16,9,49,42,252,63,20,12,48,28,54,47,19,6,17],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2179"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2179"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2182,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2179\/revisions\/2182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}