{"id":2862,"date":"2022-08-02T14:01:04","date_gmt":"2022-08-02T14:01:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/?p=2862"},"modified":"2022-08-02T14:01:04","modified_gmt":"2022-08-02T14:01:04","slug":"3-graphs-show-isnt-housing-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/3-graphs-show-isnt-housing-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Graphs To Show This Isn\u2019t a Housing Bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"

3 Graphs To Show This Isn\u2019t a Housing Bubble<\/p><\/div>\n

With all the headlines and buzz in the media, some consumers believe the market is in a housing bubble<\/a>. As the housing market shifts<\/a>, you may be wondering what\u2019ll happen next. It\u2019s only natural for concerns to creep in that it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. The good news is, there\u2019s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.<\/p>\n

For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble.\u00a0Today, supply is growing<\/a>, but there\u2019s still a shortage of inventory available.<\/p>\n

The graph below uses data<\/a> from the National Association of Realtors<\/em> (NAR) to show how this time compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.0-months\u2019 supply<\/a> at the current sales pace.<\/p>\n

\"Graphs\"

Supply of Homes Is Nothing Like Last Time<\/p><\/div>\n

One of the reasons inventory is still low is because of sustained underbuilding<\/a>. When you couple that with ongoing buyer demand as millennials age into their peak homebuying years, it continues to put upward pressure on home prices<\/a>. That limited supply compared to buyer demand is why experts forecast<\/a> home prices won\u2019t fall this time.<\/p>\n

Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Crash<\/strong><\/h4>\n

During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. The graph below showcases data<\/a> on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index <\/em>(MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers Association<\/em>(MBA). The higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage.<\/p>\n

\"Graphs\"

Lending Standards Still Under Control<\/p><\/div>\n

Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.<\/p>\n

Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies.\u00a0Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American<\/em>, says<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cCredit standards tightened in recent months<\/strong> due to increasing economic uncertainty and monetary policy tightening.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Stricter standards, like there are today, help prevent a risk of a rash of foreclosures like there was last time.<\/p>\n

The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst.\u00a0Foreclosure activity has been on the way down since the crash because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data<\/a> from ATTOM Data Solutions<\/em> to help tell the story:<\/p>\n

\"Graphs\"

Foreclosure Activity Then and Now<\/p><\/div>\n

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In addition, homeowners today are equity rich<\/a>, not tapped out.\u00a0In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATMs. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at considerable discounts that lowered the value of other homes in the area.<\/p>\n

Today, prices have risen nicely over the last few years, and that\u2019s given homeowners an equity<\/a> boost. According to Black Knight<\/em><\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/em>In total, mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months<\/em><\/strong> \u2013 a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. . . .\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

With the average home equity now standing at $207,000, homeowners are in a completely different position this time.<\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h3>\n

If you\u2019re worried we\u2019re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your concerns. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n

Contact us:<\/strong>
\nPHP Houses
\n142 W Lakeview Ave
\nUnit 1030
\nLake Mary, FL 32746
\nPh:\u00a0(407) 519-0719<\/span>
\nFax:\u00a0(407) 205-1951<\/span>
\nemail:\u00a0info@phphouses.com<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s Connect:<\/strong>
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The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. The author does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. The author will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.<\/em><\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the housing market shifts, you may be wondering what\u2019ll happen next. The good news is, there\u2019s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time. Finish Reading 3 Graphs To Show This Isn\u2019t a Housing Bubble<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[69],"tags":[15,18,66,49,295,205,84,42,527,504,63,20,320,48,526,500,47,19,6,17],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2862"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2862"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2862\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2867,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2862\/revisions\/2867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}