{"id":604,"date":"2020-03-23T15:11:38","date_gmt":"2020-03-23T15:11:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/?p=604"},"modified":"2021-02-01T14:53:31","modified_gmt":"2021-02-01T14:53:31","slug":"economic-slowdown-experts-saying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/economic-slowdown-experts-saying\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying<\/p><\/div>\n

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the\u00a0National Bureau of Economic Research<\/em><\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cA recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bill McBride, the founder of\u00a0Calculated Risk<\/em>,\u00a0believes<\/a>\u00a0we are already in a recession:<\/p>\n

\u201cWith the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants\u2026my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

How deep will it go?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus.\u00a0Goldman Sachs<\/em>\u00a0anticipates<\/a>\u00a0we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half\u00a0(see below):<\/em><\/p>\n

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Goldman Sachs GDP Forecast<\/p><\/div>\n

Goldman<\/em>\u00a0also projects we\u2019ll have\u00a0\u201cfurther strong gains in early 2021.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

This aligns with the\u00a0projection<\/a>\u00a0from\u00a0Wells Fargo Investment Institute<\/em>:<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.<\/p>\n

*QUARTER 1 DATA FROM GOLDMAN SACHS WAS UPDATED FROM 0% TO -0.2% ON 3\/17\/20 AFTER THE INITIAL RELEASE.<\/em><\/h6>\n

Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.<\/p>\n

Contact us:<\/strong>
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\nemail:\u00a0info@phphouses.com<\/p>\n

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