{"id":920,"date":"2020-07-06T15:30:36","date_gmt":"2020-07-06T15:30:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/?p=920"},"modified":"2020-07-06T15:30:36","modified_gmt":"2020-07-06T15:30:36","slug":"latest-unemployment-report-great-news-part","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/latest-unemployment-report-great-news-part\/","title":{"rendered":"Latest Unemployment Report: Great News\u2026for the Most Part"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"

Latest Unemployment Report: Great News\u2026for the Most Part<\/p><\/div>\n

The Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/em>\u00a0(BLS) released their latest\u00a0Employment Situation Summary<\/a>\u00a0last Thursday, and it again beat analysts\u2019 expectations in a big way. The consensus was for 3,074,000 jobs to be added in June. The report revealed that 4,800,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% last month. Again, excellent news as the unemployment rate fell for the second consecutive month. However, there\u2019s still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers as 17.8 million Americans remain unemployed.<\/p>\n

Here are two interesting insights on the report:<\/p>\n

What about a supposed misclassification?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The BLS addressed this at length in a\u00a0blog post<\/a>\u00a0last week, and concluded by saying:<\/p>\n

\u201cRegardless of the assumptions we might make about misclassification, the trend in the unemployment rate over the period in question is the same; the rate increased in March & April and eased in May.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

They specifically noted the issue in the latest report by explaining that if they adjusted the rate for the potential miscalculation, it would increase from 11.1% to 12.1% (which is lower than the adjusted rate of 16.4% last month). They went on to say:<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Does the shutdown of parts of the economy skew the unemployment numbers?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Because the uniqueness of 2020 impacts the employment situation in so many ways, each jobs report is now examined with a microscope to make sure the headlines generated by the report accurately convey what\u2019s happening in the job market.<\/p>\n

One such\u00a0analysis<\/a>\u00a0is done by Jed Kolko,\u00a0Chief Economist<\/em>\u00a0at\u00a0Indeed<\/em>. He believes the extraordinary number of people in the \u201ctemporary\u201d unemployed category confuses the broader issue of how many people have permanently lost their job. He adjusts for this when calculating his \u201ccore unemployment rate\u201d (which subtracts temporary layoffs and adds unemployed who didn\u2019t search for a job recently).<\/p>\n

The bad news is that his analysis reveals that the number of permanently unemployed is still rising (from 4.6% in April to 5.9% last month). The good news, however, is when you use his methodology to look back at the Great Recession, today\u2019s \u201ccore unemployment rate\u201d is significantly lower (5.9% versus 10.5% in April 2010).<\/p>\n

Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Last week\u2019s jobs report was much better than most expected. However, we should remain cautious in our optimism. As the\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/em>\u00a0explained in their\u00a0analysis of the jobs report<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u201cU.S. job growth surged last month, underscoring the economy\u2019s capacity for a quick rebound if businesses continue to reopen and consumers regain confidence. A recent coronavirus spike, however, could undermine trends captured in the latest jobs report.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

Contact us:<\/strong>
\nPHP Houses
\n142 W Lakeview Ave
\nUnit 1030
\nLake Mary, FL 32746
\nPh:\u00a0(407) 519-0719<\/span>
\nFax:\u00a0(407) 205-1951<\/span>
\nemail:\u00a0info@phphouses.com<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s Connect:<\/strong>
\nFacebook<\/a>
\nLinkedin<\/a>
\nTwitter<\/a>
\nInstagram<\/a><\/p>\n

THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGAL, FINANCIAL, OR AS ANY OTHER TYPE OF ADVICE.<\/em><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economy Recovery Finish Reading Latest Unemployment Report: Great News\u2026for the Most Part<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[69],"tags":[15,174,152,182,10,18,9,49,42,12,24,48,13,47,19,204,6,17],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/920"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=920"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/920\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":922,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/920\/revisions\/922"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/phphouses.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}