Month: December 2020

Categories
Real Estate Market

Are Home Prices Headed Toward Bubble Territory?

Are Home Prices Headed Toward Bubble Territory?

Talk of a housing bubble is beginning to crop up as home prices have appreciated at a rapid pace this year. This is understandable since the appreciation of residential real estate is well above historic annual averages. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), annual appreciation since 1991 has averaged 3.8%. Here are the latest 2020 appreciation numbers from three reliable sources:

It’s easy to jump to the conclusion that house appreciation is out of control in today’s market. However, we need to put these numbers into context first.

Inflation and the Comeback from the Housing Crash

Following the housing crash, home values depreciated dramatically from 2007-2011. Values are still recovering from that unusually long period of falling prices. We must also realize that normal inflation has had an impact.

Bill McBride, the founder of the well-respected Calculated Risk blog, recently summed it up this way:

“It has been over fourteen years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release today, the seasonally adjusted National Index, was reported as being 22.2% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms (adjusted for inflation), the National index is still about 2% below the bubble peak…As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $291,000 today adjusted for inflation.”

The COVID Impact on Home Prices

The pandemic caused many households to reconsider whether their current home still fulfills their lifestyle. Many homeowners now want larger yards that are both separate and private.

Their needs on the inside of the home have changed too. People now want home offices, gyms, and living rooms well-suited for video conferencing. Barbara Ballinger, a freelance writer and the author of several books on real estate, recently wrote:

“While homeowners continue to want their outdoor spaces that offer a safe retreat, that appeal has shifted into other parts of the home, coupling comfort with function. In other words, homeowners want amenities for work and leisure, and they plan to enjoy them long after the pandemic.”

At the same time, concerns about the pandemic have caused many homeowners to put their plans to sell on hold. Realtor.com just released their November Monthly Housing Market Trends Report. It explains:

“Nationally, the inventory of homes for sale decreased 39.2% over the past year in November…This amounted to 490,000 fewer homes for sale compared to November of last year.”

More people buying and fewer people selling has caused home prices to escalate. However, with a vaccine on the horizon, more homeowners will be putting their houses on the market. This will better balance supply with demand and slow down the rapid appreciation.

That’s why major organizations in the housing industry are calling for much more moderate home appreciation next year. Here are the most recent forecasts for 2021:

This Is Nothing Like 2006

Finally, let’s put to rest some of the concerns that today’s scenario is anything like what led up to the last housing crash. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains why this is nothing like 2006:

“Such a frenzy of activity, reminiscent of 2006, raises questions about a bubble and the potential for a painful crash. The answer: There’s no comparison. Back in 2006, dubious adjustable-rate mortgages taxed many buyers’ budgets. Some loans didn’t even require income documentation. Today, buyers are taking out 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Fourteen years ago, there were 3.8 million homes listed for sale, and home builders were putting up about 2 million new units. Now, inventory is only about 1.5 million homes, and home builders are underproducing relative to historical averages.”

Bottom Line

Most aspects of life have been anything but normal in 2020. That includes buying and selling real estate. High demand coupled with restricted supply has caused home prices to appreciate above historic levels. With the end of the health crisis in sight, we will see price appreciation return to more normal levels next year.

Contact us:
PHP Houses
142 W Lakeview Ave
Unit 1030
Lake Mary, FL 32746
Ph: (407) 519-0719
Fax: (407) 205-1951
email: info@phphouses.com

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THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGAL, FINANCIAL, OR AS ANY OTHER TYPE OF ADVICE.
Categories
Real Estate Market

An Honest Look at Unemployment Numbers

An Honest Look at Unemployment Numbers

Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Jobs Report. It revealed that, though headed in the right direction, the nation’s job recovery has slowed. The consensus reaction is best exemplified by a quote from Glassdoor Senior Economist, Daniel Zhao:

“We saw positive job gains, but I think the sentiment is largely negative because we know that we’re heading into a dark winter.”

There’s no doubt that millions of households have been – and continue to be -devastated by the economic downturn caused by the pandemic.

We should, however, put the current situation into perspective. Where we currently stand is much better than where most experts thought we would be at this time. Jed Kolko, Chief Economist of Indeed, explained in his State of the Labor Market that, though the situation is not good, we’re doing better than original expectations:

“Though the labor market rebound is incomplete, it has nevertheless surpassed expectations. In May, after payrolls plunged and unemployment spiked, the Wall Street Journal panel of economic forecasters projected unemployment would be over 11% in December 2020 and not fall below 7% until the first half of 2022 — a milestone already passed in October.”

With the announcement that vaccines should be available soon, we’re not far from the most damaged segments of the economy gaining momentum again.

Jeff Sparshott of the Wall Street Journal recently wrote:

“Even with signs of a recent slowdown, the labor-market recovery since this spring has been stronger than most economists expected. Many now project widespread vaccine distribution will eventually help lift the economy further as businesses are allowed to reopen and consumers feel more comfortable traveling, going to the movies.”

Bottom Line

Though millions of Americans are still out of work, the situation was forecasted to be even direr than it is today. Once a vaccine becomes available, the economy should complete its comeback, and so should the labor market.

Contact us:
PHP Houses
142 W Lakeview Ave
Unit 1030
Lake Mary, FL 32746
Ph: (407) 519-0719
Fax: (407) 205-1951
email: info@phphouses.com

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THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGAL, FINANCIAL, OR AS ANY OTHER TYPE OF ADVICE.
Categories
Selling a House Fast

5 Reasons to Sell Your House This Holiday Season

 Reasons to Sell Your House This Holiday Season

This holiday season may be the perfect time to sell your house. Let’s connect to discuss how today’s buyer demand is presenting the greatest opportunities for sellers.

 

Contact us:
PHP Houses
142 W Lakeview Ave
Unit 1030
Lake Mary, FL 32746
Ph: (407) 519-0719
Fax: (407) 205-1951
email: info@phphouses.com

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THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGAL, FINANCIAL, OR AS ANY OTHER TYPE OF ADVICE.
Categories
Buying a House

The Path to Homeownership

The Path to Homeownership

Some Highlights

  • If you’re thinking of buying a home and not sure where to start, you’re not alone.
  • Here’s a map with 10 simple steps to follow in the homebuying process.
  • Let’s connect today to discuss the specific steps along the way in our local area.

 

Contact us:
PHP Houses
142 W Lakeview Ave
Unit 1030
Lake Mary, FL 32746
Ph: (407) 519-0719
Fax: (407) 205-1951
email: info@phphouses.com

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THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGAL, FINANCIAL, OR AS ANY OTHER TYPE OF ADVICE.
Categories
Buying a House

A New Way to Shop for Homes in a Virtual World

A New Way to Shop for Homes in a Virtual World

In a year when we’re learning to do so much remotely, homebuying is no exception. From going to work to attending school, grocery shopping, and even seeing our doctors online, digital practices have changed the way we live.

This year, rather than delaying their home purchases, buyers – alongside their trusted real estate professionals – turned to the Internet to do more than just a typical home search. In some cases, they bought homes without even stepping foot inside. Jessica Lautz, Vice President of Demographics and Behavioral Insights at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“People really didn’t buy houses sight-unseen, traditionally. It’s still not a huge number, but it has gone up, and we have definitely seen that trend accelerate.”

According to NAR, throughout the coronavirus pandemic, one in every 20 homebuyers purchased a house sight-unseen.

How Your Real Estate Agent Will Pave the Way

Today, real estate professionals are using digital practices to help homebuyers and sellers walk through many steps in the process virtually. While following the regulations set forth by the CDC and all local guidelines, this year, agents quickly empowered buyers and sellers with virtual tours, 3D floor plans, high-quality photos, videos, online open houses, and more. For those who had homebuying and selling needs in 2020, trusted advisors made it possible in many markets.

Here’s a graph showing some of the digital options buyers found most helpful in their searches this year, as noted by NAR in the 2020 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers:

2020 Digital Home Search Preferences

The report also mentions that buyers this year generally searched for eight weeks. Throughout that search, they viewed a median of 9 homes, but not all of them were seen in-person. Yahoo Finance notes:

“Buyers viewed five homes online and four homes in-person during the pandemic, compared to nine homes in-person in 2019, according to NAR. This was the first year NAR asked buyers to specify the number of homes toured virtually.”

In true 2020 fashion, virtual practices helped buyers safely narrow down their top choices, so they didn’t have to unnecessarily walk into more homes than they needed to see throughout the process. Here’s the breakdown by region:

Number of Homes Viewed by Homebuyers

At a time when health and safety are top priorities, current technology is making it possible for buyers and sellers to move their real estate plans forward at their own comfort levels, even through a worldwide pandemic. For many, this means buyers no longer have to physically tour every home they want to see, and sellers don’t need to open their doors over and over again throughout the process. Safety can come first, and trusted real estate professionals are here to help.

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to make a move, you may not have to press pause on your plans this season. Let’s connect to determine the safe and effective options to buy or sell a home in our area or wherever you’re looking to move.

Contact us:
PHP Houses
142 W Lakeview Ave
Unit 1030
Lake Mary, FL 32746
Ph: (407) 519-0719
Fax: (407) 205-1951
email: info@phphouses.com

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THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGAL, FINANCIAL, OR AS ANY OTHER TYPE OF ADVICE.
Categories
Buying a House Real Estate Market

With Home Values Surging, Is it Still Affordable to Buy Right Now?

With Home Values Surging, Is it Still Affordable to Buy Right Now?

Housing inventory is at an all-time low. Realtor.com just reported that there are 39% fewer homes for sale today than there were last year. At the same time, buyer demand remains strong. In a recent newsletter, research analyst Ivy Zelman explained:

“Although the headwind of severe supply constraints in most markets has contributed to slight moderation in seasonally-adjusted and year-over-year new pending contract growth for two consecutive months (albeit still growing strongly), the underlying strength of buyer demand, particularly for this time of year, remains apparent.”

Whenever there’s a shortage in the supply of an item that’s in high demand, the price of that item increases. That’s exactly what’s happening in the real estate market right now. As a result, home values are surging.

This is great news if you’re planning to sell your house. On the other hand, as either a first-time or repeat buyer, this may instead seem like troubling news. Purchasers, however, should realize that the price of a house is not as important as the monthly cost. Here’s how it breaks down.

There are several factors that influence the cost of a home. Two of the major ones are:

  1. The price of the home
  2. The mortgage rate at which a buyer can borrow the funds necessary to purchase the home

How do these factors impact affordability?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) produces a Housing Affordability Index which takes these factors into account and determines an overall affordability score for housing. According to NAR, the index:

“…measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national and regional levels based on the most recent price and income data.”

Their methodology states:

“To interpret the indices, a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment.”

So, the higher the index, the more affordable it is to purchase a home. Here’s a graph of the index going back to 1990:

Housing Affordability Index 1990 to Today

The blue bar represents today’s affordability. We can see that homes are more affordable now than they were from:

  • 1990 to 2008
  • 2017 to 2018

Buying a home today is just a little less affordable than it was last year, but still very affordable compared to historical housing market trends.

Note: During the housing crash from 2009 to 2015, distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) dominated the market. Those properties were sold at large discounts not seen before in the housing market.

Why are homes still affordable today?

The number one factor impacting today’s homebuying affordability is record-low mortgage rates. There’s no doubt that prices are on the rise. However, mortgage rates have fallen dramatically. Last week, Freddie Mac announced that the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 2.72%. Last year at this time, the average rate was 3.68%.

If you’re considering purchasing your first home or moving up to the one you’ve always hoped for, it’s important to understand how affordability plays into the overall cost of your home. With that in mind, buying while mortgage rates are as low as they are now may save you quite a bit of money over the life of your home loan.

Bottom Line

At this point, home purchase affordability is still in a historically good place. However, we need to watch price increases going forward. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, noted in a recent post:

“Faster nominal house price appreciation can erode, or even eliminate, the boost in affordability from lower mortgage rates, especially if household income growth doesn’t keep up.”

 

Contact us:
PHP Houses
142 W Lakeview Ave
Unit 1030
Lake Mary, FL 32746
Ph: (407) 519-0719
Fax: (407) 205-1951
email: info@phphouses.com

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THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGAL, FINANCIAL, OR AS ANY OTHER TYPE OF ADVICE.
Categories
Buying a House

Knowledge Is Power on the Path to Homeownership

Knowledge Is Power on the Path to Homeownership

Homeownership is on the goal list for many young adults, but sometimes it’s hard to know exactly how to get there. From understanding the homebuying process to pre-approval and down payment assistance options, uncertainty along the way can ultimately hold some buyers back.

Today, there are over 75 million Millennials and 67 million Gen Z’ers in the U.S., making up a significant number of both current and soon-to-be homebuyers. According to a recent Fannie Mae survey of more than 2,000 of these individuals:

“88% said they are confident they will achieve homeownership someday.”

In addition, the survey also reveals that for younger generations, the motivation to own a home may be more emotional than financial compared to previous generations:

  • <50% say they want to use their home as an asset
  • 78% believe it’s the best way to live the way they want, without restrictions
  • 80% believe homeownership is the best way to make it on their own

Whether homeownership goals come from the heart or are driven by financial aspirations (or maybe both), the obstacles standing in the way don’t have to bring these dreams to a screeching halt. The same survey also reveals two key roadblocks for potential buyers. Thankfully, they’re both easily overcome with the power of knowledge and trusted advisors leading the way. Here’s a look at these two challenges potential homebuyers face today:

1. 73% of future homebuyers are unaware of low-down-payment mortgage options

For those who want to purchase a home, low-down-payment options are instrumental to affording one sooner rather than later, especially given the amount of debt many younger adults have accumulated. Fannie Mae also notes:

“Among the challenges they face is an unprecedented amount of debt, along with a lack of understanding of the mortgage process and their own purchasing power. Debt, in particular, creates many obstacles such as a limited ability to save and the fear of taking on more debt.”

Today, there are more than 2,340 down payment assistance programs available nationwide to help relieve this pressure. Understanding what’s out there and the options available may help many buyers become homeowners faster than they thought possible. In a year like this, with record-low mortgage rates making their mark in the history books, being able to take advantage of the opportunity buyers have right now is essential to long-term affordability.

2. 64% of buyers expect lenders and other real estate professionals to educate them about the mortgage process

While many people love to do a quick search online to find instant answers to their questions, it isn’t the only way younger generations want to consume information or build their knowledge base. As the survey mentions, having trusted professionals help them learn what it takes to achieve their dreams is definitely on their wish list too.

Bottom Line

If you’re aiming for homeownership someday, it may be in closer reach than you think. Let’s connect so you can learn about the process and get the guidance you need to make it happen.

 

Contact us:
PHP Houses
142 W Lakeview Ave
Unit 1030
Lake Mary, FL 32746
Ph: (407) 519-0719
Fax: (407) 205-1951
email: info@phphouses.com

Let’s Connect:
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Linkedin
Twitter
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THE INFORMATION PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED LEGAL, FINANCIAL, OR AS ANY OTHER TYPE OF ADVICE.